Carey Researchers Weigh In On Zikas Economic Impact

Main navigation Johns Hopkins Legacy Online packages Faculty Directory Experiential studying Career resources Alumni mentoring program Util Nav CTA CTA Breadcrumb Carey Researchers Weigh In on Zika's Economic Impact Researchers from the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School estimate that the social and financial price of the latest Zika virus outbreak in Latin America and the Caribbean may cost international locations in the region an estimated $7 billion to $18 billion from 2015 to 2017. Their findings are included in a brand new report issued by the United Nations Development Programme and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. Researchers from the Johns Hopkins Carey Business School estimate that the social and financial cost of the recent Zika virus outbreak in Latin America and the Caribbean may price international locations within the area an estimated $7 billion to $18 billion from 2015 to 2017. Their findings are included in a brand new report “A Socio-economic impression assessment of Zika virus in Latin America and the Caribbean: with a give attention to Brazil, Colombia and Suriname”issued by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Inte rnational Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The report was produced in collaboration with the ISGlobal, the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, and introduced to the United Nations on April 6, 2017. The Zika virus is transmitted to humans by mosquitos and has been linked to the delivery defect microcephaly, a situation by which babies are born with smaller than anticipated heads and brains. The disease can also be related to a sample of birth defects often known as “congenital Zika syndrome,” which may embrace extreme microcephaly, imaginative and prescient and hearing problems, and different symptoms. Since 2014, Zika has spread rapidly throughout Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as parts of the U.S., Asia, and Africa. In early 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Zika a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern.” The WHO estimated that as many as four million contaminated folks in Latin America and the Caribbean mig ht have been infected by early 2017. Worldwide, these estimates could possibly be as excessive as 80 to 117 million individuals infected and as many as 1.5 million pregnant ladies infected globally. For the study, Carey Associate Professor Mario Macis (right) and Assistant Professor Emilia Simeonova (beneath right) conducted a ”rapid evaluation” evaluation of macroeconomic prices for Latin American and the Caribbean nations primarily based on current knowledge on the incidence and transmission of Zika virus. Macis and Simeonova primarily based their calculations on three estimated rates of transmission, present, medium, and high. The overall cost of the epidemic included the price of direct therapy and care, in addition to the price of misplaced revenue and productiveness. According to the study, the epidemic might price between $7 and $18 billion within the quick term, which equates to an average of $1 billion in prices for each 5 % rise in infection fee. The magnitude of the e stimated economic price of the epidemic varies considerably throughout the three infection eventualities: baseline $7 billion; medium $9 billion; and excessive $18 billion over the whole area. The long-time period cost of Zika on the region was additionally estimated to be substantial because of the direct and oblique prices related to microcephaly and Guillain-Barre syndrome. Overall, the total direct and indirect lifetime cost of microcephaly cases brought on by Zika might exceed $3 billion in probably the most optimistic situation and $29 billion in the worst-case Zika situation. The corresponding lifetime prices of Guillain-Barre syndrome cases are estimated to be between $242 million and $10 billion. “The Zika epidemic will have each important quick-term and lengthy-term financial influence. Even within the least pessimistic eventualities, we estimate the prices could possibly be as excessive as $7-$9 billion, which is a large amount, significantly once we consider that the i nternational locations affected are low- and middle-income countries” mentioned Macis, an writer of the report. “This outbreak will be costly, but it is extremely onerous to predict the true cost, as a result of we have no idea how widespread the illness will be, and there is still appreciable uncertainty about the frequency of microcephaly, Guillain-Barre and different penalties of Zika.” According to Macis, some current estimates suggest that the speed of microcephaly from Zika an infection might reach 10 percent, which is a much greater fee than that thought of within the UNDP research. “There is a paucity of research on the costs related to the Zika virus. For instance there are no studies on the consequences on tourism revenues. The world neighborhood actually needs to come together to better perceive this problem,” mentioned Simeonova, co-author of the examine. “More information is required to know transmission rates and different outcomes. More data will help us i n making better estimates, which in flip would helo the affected international locations to budget appropriately.” Posted one hundred International Drive